Astrogers prediction and current political situation of Nepal
As if to prove them right, politicians have reneged on their promise to promulgate a new constitution by May 28, a statute that was meant to be compatible with Nepal's move in 2008 from a monarchy to a democratic republic. The politicians finally broke aconspicuous silence on Monday, saying extra time was needed to complete the job.
"The constitution can't be drafted at any cost by May 28, the UML [Unified Marxist-Leninist party] is very clear about this," UML chairman Jhalanath Khanal told media after a meeting with party colleagues in the Constituent Assembly - the body that is tasked with writing the constitution and which acts as an interim legislature.
The UML is the third-largest party in the 601-member assembly and considered a moderate among the communist parties.
The Constituent Assembly was elected in early 2008 with a specific tenure of two years to draft the constitution. The interim statute has a provision for a six-month extension but this can be given only if the country has been placed under emergency rule.
Khanal and others want the interim constitution quickly amended to remove this emergency clause and to extend its term by one year. Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, also from the UML, favors the extension, likely because it ensures a possible extension of his government's life span.
The Nepali Congress, the oldest political party with democratic credentials, is also not against adding a year to the assembly's life - if the Maoists can help create an atmosphere of trust. Congress, the second-largest party in the assembly after the Maoists, is an important partner in the governing coalition.
Ramchandra Poudel, leader of the Congress deputies in the house, has put forward plans to dissolve the present government and form a national unity government. However, his conditions include the Maoists returning private property seized during the years of armed insurgency (1996-2006) and transforming the Young Communist League into a peaceful outfit.
The Maoists - whose Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) is the largest party in the assembly with nearly 40% of seats - have their own set of schemes and conditions.
Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (better known as Prachanda, meaning "Awesome") and his group of firebrand comrades are firmly against the idea of extending the assembly's term - unless the incumbent prime minister resigns. This would leave space for a government of national unity under Prachanda.
Given the Maoist's sway in the assembly they feel justified in making their demands. The Maoists were in government from 2008 until May 2009, when Prachanda resigned over alleged outside interference from India. In the Maoists' view, the country will not get a constitution nor will the ongoing peace process reach its logical conclusion as long as the present "puppet" coalition remains in power, a reference to India's influence.
The Maoists are, in the meantime, angry over the government's decision to recruit personnel for the Nepal army in apparent defiance of restrictions in the peace accord concluded between Maoist rebels and the government in 2006. Former Maoist combatants, numbering about 19,600, are currently in United Nations-monitored cantonments. The peace agreement prohibits both sides from making additional recruitment. Nepal army sources have stressed that the latest recruitment drive, advertised in national newspapers on Monday, was only for "technical posts". The army's strength in 2006 stood at 95,000.
A lack of political understanding among the major parties has delayed dismantling the Maoists' forces, though some have been integrated into the security apparatus, including the army. The plan of rehabilitation for those not willing to go into government service is in disarray.
Meanwhile, the Maoists have widely publicized their intention to intensify street agitation, mainly in the capital, Kathmandu, and the eastern township of Biratnagar, from May 1. The group says this will be a "decisive push" against the present regime and lead to the proclamation of a "people's constitution".
There are media reports from across the country that senior Maoist leaders are training cadres for the protests. This has made the government and population jittery about the consequences of a possible showdown.
Events comparable to what recently happened in Kyrgyzstan, where the government was forced out by street protests, have not been ruled out. The strategic location of the landlocked, mountainous Central Asian republic has long attracted attention from the United States, Russia and neighboring China. And Nepal, too, appears to be a competing ground for two Asian giants, China and India, with the US is taking a keen interest in the Tibetan issue from behind the scenes.
After India, Nepal hosts the largest group of Tibetans who fled their homeland in the late 1950s. US involvement in Tibet-related matters is not restricted to a periodic welcome to the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.
Detailed accounts of early contacts and operations can be found, for example, in the book Orphans of the Cold War, written by John Kenneth Knaus, a Central Intelligence Agency officer of that time. In the 1970s, the Nepal army launched a major assault on Tibetan rebels, known as the Khampa, who were making armed attacks on the Tibetan side from their base in the northern hills of Nepal. The rebel leader was killed and the army seized a large cache of weapons from them.
As the interim statute requires the Constituent Assembly to complete procedures with a two-thirds majority (in the absence of consensus), all eyes are focussed on the three major parties that together command the necessary strength. That is why leaders of regional and other smaller parties clearly - and publicly - blame the bigger parties for the failure to produce a constitution on time.
Nevertheless, the smaller groups are not necessarily opposed to the extension, since they too have become accustomed to the perks and privileges given to members of the assembly.
The public attitude towards the parties, leaders and deputies, however, is becoming increasingly hostile. The resentment is clear in public forums and media outlets. Voters are highly critical of the deceptive approach the main parties' leaders seem to have taken, with some saying that leaders have bypassed their mandate to work harmoniously until a new constitution was enacted.
Instead, they amended the interim statute and inserted a provision creating ruling and opposition benches that subsequently diverted attention to a constant struggle for power on the basis of numerical strength. Many political observers believe that the time and resources spent on this could have been easily used to draft the constitution. The intelligentsia even suspects that principal leaders have made a tacit agreement to deceive the public.
Constitutional experts are reading the public's mind carefully. "In the public eye, most of the leaders and their parties are already a discredited lot," Daman Dhungana, a former parliamentary speaker and constitutional lawyer, said in a comment given to Asia Times Online.
Since the interim constitution does not provide any legal ground for an extension, they have to offer convincing reasons to the people to take a political decision for extension(s), he added.
Among those who echoed this sober view was Badri Bahadur Karki, who once served the government as attorney general. But the stakeholders, according to Karki, must take these initiatives on time, before May 28.
Young, vocal lawyers say Nepal is heading towards a constitutional crisis of unmanageable proportions on May 29 - the Constituent Assembly is dissolved, the government ceases to exist in the absence of an elected body to oversee it, and the president who was elected by the assembly becomes irrelevant.
In this scenario, even if President Ram Baran Yadav stays on, he would have no executive authority to exercise. In effect, the entire interim constitution becomes defunct. The army and/or external forces are bound to intervene. And ultimately, the "revolutionary gains" made up until the April uprising of 2006 would be lost.
This pessimistic standpoint has been disputed by another set of equally competent lawyers. They say the interim statute has a provision that keeps it operational until a new one is promulgated, and the president would be allowed to remain in office until the new constitution was ready to enact.
In fact, the president's role effectively increases in the absence of other institutions. Assuming that role in extraordinary circumstances, the president may form a neutral, caretaker government headed by a former chief justice and announce fresh elections for a Constituent Assembly.
The most formidable challenge at hand, though, is the one created by the threat of the Maoists.
They present themselves as a strong political force with a progressive nationalistic agenda. Their declared policy to oppose Indian interference is often cited as proof of their patriotic stand. Still, their origin as well as leaning continue to be a subject of conjecture.
Chakra Banstola, the Congress man who was foreign minister at the time of the palace massacre in June 2001, recently shared his perception of the Maoists through an interesting analogy: "I am not sure about who laid this egg called the Maoists, but it was definitely hatched by India. Later, the chick disowned its mother. This is the reality today."
Will the mother hen claim the chick? Or will the chick change shelter and seek the protection of the hen to the north - China?
Analysts who closely study Maoist strategy tend to read something into the belligerent tone the Maoists have employed in recent speeches. Prachanda, who visited China as prime minister and then as his party's chairman, has been invited as a special guest for the Shanghai World Expo that is to be launched soon.
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